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Bonds · US Treasury curve monitor · yields in %, moves in basis points, rising yields in red

Curve overlay · US Treasury par curve · today vs 1w · 1m · 3m · 6m · 1y ago

3.54.04.55.05.5 1M3M6M1Y2Y3Y5Y7Y10Y20Y30Y 4.12 4.26 4.34 4.46 4.74 4.82 4.89 4.98 5.09 5.47 5.43
today 16 Oct 1w 08 Oct 1m 16 Sep 3m 17 Jul 6m 16 Apr 1y 14 Oct
Log scale on tenor so the front end is readable. When the white curve sits below an older curve at the front and above it at the back, the curve is steepening; the reverse is flattening; crossing lines = the curve changed shape, not just level.

The move and the danger

Danger: LOW
Last month: bear steepener · 2Y +0bp · 10Y +8bp · 10Y−2Y +0.27 → +0.35
Nothing in the curve is flashing.
measurenowread
10Y − 2Y+0.35positive
10Y − 3M+0.83positive
Curvature (2·5Y − 2Y − 10Y)-0.05belly cheap — front or back end leading
Inverted sessions, last year0none

For the desk's instruments

NAS100 — headwind — higher long rates hit valuations
XAUUSD — mixed — inflation hedge vs higher real yields
USDJPY — up — higher US yields
GER40 — headwind
Four shapes: bear flattener (front end up fastest, tightening priced, late cycle) · bull steepener (front end down fastest, cuts priced because growth breaks — the dangerous one after an inversion) · bear steepener (long end up, inflation or term premium) · bull flattener (long end down, growth fear). The inversion is the warning; the un-inversion through a falling 2Y is historically where recessions start.

Spreads through time · 10Y−2Y (white) · 10Y−3M (blue) · inversion shaded red

0 +1.1-0.3 02 Jan 202516 Oct 2026

Tenors

tenoryield1d1w1m
3M4.26%-2bp+3bp+12bp
2Y4.74%-3bp-1bp0bp
5Y4.89%-2bp-10bp+3bp
10Y5.09%-1bp-13bp+8bp
30Y5.43%0bp-17bp+8bp
10Y − 2Y: +0.35 · 10Y − 3M: +0.83

What today's bond move means

Bonds · 10Y 5.10% (+1bp) → quiet, no effect on NAS100
Bonds · 10Y 5.10% (+1bp) → quiet, no effect on XAUUSD
GER40: no bond read
Bonds · 10Y 5.10% (+1bp) → quiet, no effect on USDJPY
Rule used by the desk: rising yields hurt NAS100 and gold, help USDJPY; quiet under 4bp on both the 2Y and 10Y; "a lot" from 8bp. GER40 carries no bond line by decision.
Read 0 seconds ago · 10Y ^TNX · 2Y 2YY=F (yield futures, near 24h).
Prep only. Every number traces to a stored input. The desk never trades.