Prediction markets · Polymarket odds for the events the desk tracks · the market's numbers, never the model's
Fed decision · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| no change | 89% | |
| 25bp hike | 12% | |
| 50+bp cut | 0% | |
| 25bp cut | 0% | |
Fed decision · December 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 25bp hike | 77% | |
| no change | 20% | |
| 50+bp hike | 3% | |
| 25bp cut | 1% | |
Ecb interest rates · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| no change | 96% | |
| 25bp hike | 4% | |
| 50+bp cut | 0% | |
| 25bp cut | 0% | |
Ecb interest rates · December 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 25bp hike | 83% | |
| no change | 15% | |
| 50+bp cut | 1% | |
| 25bp cut | 1% | |
Bank of england · November 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 25bp hike | 94% | |
| no change | 7% | |
| 25bp cut | 1% | |
| 50+bp hike | 1% | |
Bank of england · December 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| no change | 61% | |
| 25bp hike | 26% | |
| 50+bp hike | 9% | |
| 25bp cut | 2% | |
Bank of japan · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| no change | 97% | |
| 25bp hike | 3% | |
| 50+bp hike | 1% | |
| 50+bp cut | 0% | |
Bank of japan · December 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 25bp hike | 72% | |
| no change | 25% | |
| 50+bp cut | 1% | |
| 25bp cut | 1% | |
Core cpi mom · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 0.3% | 34% | |
| 0.2% | 32% | |
| 0.4% | 16% | |
| 0.1% | 13% | |
Cpi yoy · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 2.6% | 80% | |
| 2.5% | 17% | |
| 2.7% | 5% | |
| 3.0% | 2% | |
How many jobs added · October 2026
| outcome | odds | |
|---|
| 100k+ | 32% | |
| 75k to 100k | 21% | |
| 50k to 75k | 15% | |
| 25k to 50k | 13% | |
Markets searched: Fed decision, ECB rates, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, core CPI m/m, CPI y/y, jobs added — for this month and the next two. Cached 30 minutes.