TP1 Terminal · Decisions

Taken (SIGNAL)

54% win · n=70

+19.7R total · +0.3R avg

Rejected, had they been taken

44% win · n=284

-17.4R total · -0.1R avg

Below the signals' rate and negative R means the gates as a whole are doing their job.

Proposals · nothing applied

▸ Symmetrical Triangle on NAS100 is untrusted but won 70% on 10 with +1.3R — trust it on NAS100 only; a pattern does not work the same on every ticker.

▸ Untrusted pattern costs on NAS100 only: +6.5R over 25 rejects (64% win) — the gate is right in general, wrong for NAS100.

▸ Partizan is untrusted but won 55% on 11 with +7.2R — a trust candidate; trust ONE pattern at a time.

▸ Gates that earn their keep: Outside session window (saved +18.1R), Behaviour: level broke (saved +2.1R), T1 R:R too tight (saved +1.9R), SCALP R:R too tight (saved +7.9R). Leave them.

Rule trials · the system correcting itself · daily 06:00 UTC: one trial at a time on 15+ rejects, win ≥ signals, ≥ 3R · trial signals trade HALF · kept after 30 days on 10+ live results, reverted on a bad record, expired at 60 days

No trial yet. The tuner opens one the morning a proposal clears the evidence bar; the safety gates (HIGH event, tail, bias, regime, day lock) are never tunable.

By gate · what each reject reason threw away

gate	fired	resolved	win	R total	R avg	verdict	per instrument
Outside session window	155	114	34%	-18.1	-0.2	earns	NAS100 35% -3.4R (n=17) earns · GER40 21% -18.2R (n=34) earns · USDJPY 43% +5.6R (n=42) · XAUUSD 38% -2.1R (n=21) earns
Untrusted pattern	133	100	50%	+5.7	+0.1	neutral	GER40 43% +0.0R (n=21) · NAS100 64% +6.5R (n=25) costs · XAUUSD 43% -3.6R (n=21) earns · USDJPY 48% +2.8R (n=33)
Behaviour: level broke	27	12	42%	-2.1	-0.2	earns	USDJPY 0% -2.0R (n=2) · GER40 50% -0.5R (n=6) · XAUUSD 100% +2.4R (n=2) · NAS100 0% -2.0R (n=2)
T1 R:R too tight	26	18	50%	-1.9	-0.1	earns	GER40 33% -3.1R (n=9) · NAS100 100% +2.2R (n=2) · USDJPY 100% +1.2R (n=2) · XAUUSD 40% -2.2R (n=5)
SCALP R:R too tight	17	15	33%	-7.9	-0.5	earns	NAS100 0% -3.0R (n=3) · USDJPY 100% +0.9R (n=2) · GER40 33% -3.2R (n=6) · XAUUSD 25% -2.6R (n=4)
SWING R:R too tight	17	7	100%	+2.9	+0.4	too few	USDJPY 100% +1.7R (n=4) · XAUUSD 100% +0.8R (n=2) · NAS100 100% +0.4R (n=1)
First 30 min of session	12	11	45%	+0.4	+0.0	neutral	XAUUSD 29% -1.8R (n=7) · NAS100 50% -0.1R (n=2) · GER40 100% +2.3R (n=2)
Contested tape	6	5	60%	+3.3	+0.7	too few	XAUUSD 100% +2.2R (n=1) · GER40 50% +0.5R (n=2) · NAS100 50% +0.6R (n=2)
Market closed	1	1	0%	-1.0	-1.0	too few	NAS100 0% -1.0R (n=1)
HIGH event near	1	1	100%	+1.4	+1.4	too few	XAUUSD 100% +1.4R (n=1)

R total is what the rejects would have made had they been taken. Negative is GOOD for a gate (green): it blocked losers. Positive is the gate's cost (red). "earns" = saved R; "costs" = the rejects made R and won at least as often as the taken signals; "neutral" = made R but at a lower win rate than the signals.

Pattern × ticker · untrusted, judged per instrument

pattern	ticker	resolved	win	R total	verdict
Partizan	USDJPY	4	100%	+7.4	too few
Anti-Gartley	NAS100	4	75%	+4.1	too few
Leonardo	NAS100	2	100%	+4.1	too few
Butterfly	USDJPY	4	75%	+3.0	too few
Anti-Gartley	GER40	6	50%	+2.9	too few
Partizan	XAUUSD	1	100%	+2.1	too few
Anti-Gartley	USDJPY	2	50%	+1.8	too few
Symmetrical Triangle	NAS100	10	70%	+1.3	candidate
Bat	NAS100	1	100%	+1.1	too few
Crab	USDJPY	1	100%	+1.0	too few
3-Drive	USDJPY	1	100%	+0.6	too few
Inverse Head&Shoulders	NAS100	2	100%	+0.5	too few
Inverse Head&Shoulders	XAUUSD	2	100%	+0.5	too few
Leonardo	GER40	2	50%	+0.3	too few
Head&Shoulders	GER40	1	100%	+0.3	too few
Head&Shoulders	NAS100	1	100%	+0.3	too few

A pattern does not work the same on every ticker. "candidate" here means trust it on THAT ticker only.

Trusted patterns that fail on one ticker

pattern	ticker	signals	win	R total	verdict
AB=CD	GER40	2	0%	-2.0	too few
Shark	NAS100	2	0%	-2.0	too few
White Swan	GER40	4	25%	-2.0	too few
Cypher	GER40	4	25%	-1.7	too few
Anti-Butterfly	GER40	4	25%	-1.6	too few
Anti-Nen Star	USDJPY	1	0%	-1.0	too few
Shark	GER40	1	0%	-1.0	too few
AB=CD	XAUUSD	1	0%	-1.0	too few
White Swan	USDJPY	1	0%	-1.0	too few
Anti-Cypher	GER40	1	0%	-1.0	too few
Gartley	USDJPY	1	0%	-1.0	too few
Deep Crab	XAUUSD	2	50%	+0.2	too few

"switch off candidate" = taken signals of this pattern on this ticker lost money and won 10+ times at 10 points below the desk's rate. The tuner can switch the pattern off on that ticker alone.

Untrusted patterns · all tickers together

pattern	resolved	win	R total	R avg	verdict
Partizan	11	55%	+7.2	+0.7	candidate
Anti-Gartley	17	47%	+6.3	+0.4	stays untrusted
Leonardo	5	60%	+3.4	+0.7	too few
Butterfly	5	60%	+2.0	+0.4	too few
Inverse Head&Shoulders	4	100%	+1.1	+0.3	too few
3-Drive	1	100%	+0.6	+0.6	too few
Head&Shoulders	2	100%	+0.5	+0.3	too few
Crab	5	40%	-0.9	-0.2	too few
Ascending Triangle	1	0%	-1.0	-1.0	too few
Alternate Bat	2	0%	-2.0	-1.0	too few
5-0	6	17%	-3.4	-0.6	too few
Bat	6	17%	-3.9	-0.7	too few
Symmetrical Triangle	35	54%	-4.2	-0.1	stays untrusted

"candidate" = won at least as often as the taken signals and made R on 10+ fires. Trust one pattern at a time, then read it again next month.

Economic news · fires within 2h of a HIGH event for the instrument's currencies

Calendar feed alive · 0 watched event(s) on today's board — a quiet day, not a dead feed.

	near a HIGH event	away from events
taken	100% · n=2 · +1.4R	53% · n=68 · +18.3R
rejected	51% · n=55 · +6.1R	42% · n=229 · -23.5R

180 events stored since July, 68 HIGH. A fire counts as "near" when a HIGH event for its currencies sits within 2h before or after it.

event	fires	win	R
USD Core CPI m/m	17	47%	+0.4
USD Core PPI m/m	17	65%	+9.4
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m	9	67%	+2.5
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m	6	50%	-0.8
USD FOMC Press Conference	4	0%	-4.0
USD Federal Funds Rate	1	100%	+1.4
JPY BOJ Policy Rate	1	0%	-1.0
JPY BOJ Press Conference	1	100%	+0.7
USD Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks	1	0%	-1.0

Decisions · rejected vs taken · every fire is scored whether taken or rejected, so each gate is judged by what it threw away · last 90 days