How to read the desk

🌡 Macro — the investment-clock quadrant computed from payrolls, unemployment, CPI and the bill yield. Recovery favours stocks, Overheat commodities, Stagflation cash, Reflation bonds. It votes as the regime factor when the manual bias is older than three days.

🧭 What moves today — the three to six drivers moving more than usual, each with its share of all driver pull, yesterday's share, and which instruments it helps or hurts.

🟢 / 🔴 / ⚪ instrument line — BUY-SIDE, SELL-SIDE, CONFLICTED or NO EDGE, with how many voters agree. Voters: the drivers lean and the regime. Everything else is context.

drivers / range / regime / vol — the lean and its sign, where the last close sits in the 20-day range, the regime vote, and the 21-day realised volatility class (high = half size).

Bonds — the 10Y and 2Y with today's basis points, and whether that helps, hurts or is quiet for the instrument.

COT — speculators' positioning from the weekly CFTC report and its 3-year percentile; "crowded" at the 90th or 10th.

Quant — score 0–100 (50 = flat), conviction LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH, priced in (how much of the move the drivers imply price already did today), and each driver's strength.

Catalyst — the next scheduled event for the instrument's currencies, with market odds where one exists.

🟩 / 🟥 zones — the 62–67% retracement of the current swing on 1h and 4h: BUY zone below price in an up-swing, SELL zone above in a down-swing, with stop and target. "broken" = price already went through it; "IN NOW" = price is there.

👉 WAIT / BUY now / SELL now — what to do with the zones right now.

Leans … — the one-line conclusion, with the stretch caveat when price is at an extreme of its range.

⚠ Key risk — the one thing that would make the lean wrong: a driver pulling the other way, a red event today, crowded positioning, a stretched price, tail risk, bonds against, or simply the lean's main driver reversing.

🎯 Scenario — "if the main driver continues → direction · confirmed above X · killed below Y".

The scanner (HPP patterns on TradingView) fires a pattern with entry, target and stop. The desk checks it against its gates: trusted pattern, geometry, R:R floor (1.5 swing, 1.0 scalp), regime not red, behaviour feed not against it, session window, no HIGH event within 45 minutes, no contested tape, day not locked, trade count, no open position.

Grade — where the pattern fires against the zones: A at the 4h zone with the desk not against, B at the 1h zone, C no zone, X at a zone against you.

Playbook — the measured record of this instrument and this pattern over 30 days turned into a size word: FULL, NORMAL or HALF. Lots only ever shrink.

Entry watch — the desk pings once when price touches the entry.

No entry 15 minutes either side of a red event. No chase: zone or pattern entry, not a hole. A good month never adds size. The desk never trades; the scanner setup and your Trade Box gate every entry.

/forecast the push now · /stats [days] the scorecard · /verdict the monthly read against fixed thresholds · forward a Polairyx post to log and score it.