Momentum = recent three months against the year's trend: growth +0.54, inflation +0.16; Merrill Lynch investment clock. The computed regime votes as the regime factor when the manual bias is stale.
Inputs
axis
indicator
latest
recent 3m
year trend
Growth
Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change
—
+51k/m
+41k/m
Growth
Unemployment rate
4.2%
4.13%
4.29%
Inflation
CPI y/y
3.7%
3.5%
3.2%
Inflation
Core CPI y/y
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
Growth
Initial jobless claims (NSA, 4w avg)
191,033
173,487 (13w)
210,891 (52w)
Inflation
Breakevens proxy (TIP/IEF, log ×100)
—
14.708 (qtr)
14.486 (year)
Policy
13-week bill yield
4.07%
—
3.6% (6m ago) → tightening
Sources: BLS public API (payrolls, unemployment, CPI, core CPI), DOL weekly claims file, Yahoo (TIP/IEF breakevens proxy, ^IRX bills). Growth = average of 3 inputs, inflation of 3. Refreshed daily 13:05 UTC.
Manual bias: neutral set 2 months ago · tail off
Realised volatility · 21-day, vs each instrument's own year
instrument
vol (ann.)
percentile
class
sizing
NAS100
18.3%
p53
NORMAL
normal
XAUUSD
17.9%
p10
LOW
normal
GER40
13%
p36
NORMAL
normal
USDJPY
4.6%
p19
LOW
normal
Regime history
day
regime
strength
growth
inflation
policy
2026-10-18
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.16
tightening
2026-10-17
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.16
tightening
2026-10-16
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.16
tightening
2026-10-15
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.15
tightening
2026-10-14
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.15
tightening
2026-10-13
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.15
tightening
2026-10-12
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.14
tightening
2026-10-11
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.14
tightening
2026-10-10
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.14
tightening
2026-10-09
Overheat
moderate
+0.54
+0.14
tightening
Prep only. Every number traces to a stored input. The desk never trades.